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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league (63.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
  • The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).
  • Trevor Lawrence has attempted 30.1 throws per game this year, ranking in the 75th percentile when it comes to QBs.
  • With an exceptional rate of 1.53 per game (82nd percentile), Trevor Lawrence rates as one of the leading touchdown throwers in football this year.
  • When it comes to safeties getting after the quarterback, Buffalo's unit has been lousy this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bills, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.3 per game) this year.
  • Trevor Lawrence rates as one of the least accurate passers in football this year with a 60.5% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 16th percentile.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the league vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the 6th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.12 per game this year.

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