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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-195).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -177 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -195.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jaguars to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.7 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect Trevor Lawrence to attempt 36.4 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense this year: 7th-most in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 48.2% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the league under these circumstances has been the Jacksonville Jaguars.
  • Trevor Lawrence grades out as one of the least accurate passers in the NFL this year with a 59.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 13th percentile.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the league against the Broncos defense this year (65.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the stout Broncos defense has given up a paltry 1.00 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

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