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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+138/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -151 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -155.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
  • In logging a massive 31.0 pass attempts per game this year, Trevor Lawrence places among the top QBs in the league (76th percentile) in this regard.
  • The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
  • As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Indianapolis's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 52.2% red zone pass rate.
  • The predictive model expects the Jaguars to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • Trevor Lawrence has been one of the least accurate passers in football this year with a 59.7% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 13th percentile.
  • This year, the daunting Indianapolis Colts defense has given up a paltry 1.33 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 10th-smallest rate in the league.

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