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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Arizona Cardinals vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -165.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jaguars have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
  • The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
  • Our trusted projections expect Trevor Lawrence to throw 36.7 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 7th-most among all QBs.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-most in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Jaguars to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 51.9% red zone pass rate.
  • Trevor Lawrence checks in as one of the least on-target QBs in football this year with a 59.8% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 9th percentile.
  • With a very bad ratio of just 1.00 per game (22nd percentile), Trevor Lawrence has been among the bottom touchdown throwers in the NFL this year.
  • The Cardinals defense has surrendered the 9th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.30 per game this year.

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