Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (63.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jaguars.
The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This year, the porous Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded a staggering 1.50 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 10th-biggest rate in football.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Pittsburgh's collection of CBs has been terrible this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

This year, the stout Steelers defense has surrendered a mere 60.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-best rate in the league.

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