Trevor Lawrence TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-164).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -164.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.60 seconds per play.
The Jaguars O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Falcons defense has conceded the 7th-most passing touchdowns in the league: 1.55 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.5% to 62.7%.
As it relates to safeties rushing the passer, Atlanta's group of safeties has been excellent since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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