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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Arizona Cardinals vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jaguars have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
  • Trevor Lawrence has been a more integral piece of his team's ground game this year (15.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (10.3%).
  • Trevor Lawrence's 17.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year reflects a material boost in his running talent over last year's 11.0 mark.
  • The Cardinals defense has produced the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing 4.96 adjusted yards-per-carry.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 10th-least run-oriented team in the NFL (38.1% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
  • The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
  • Trevor Lawrence's running effectiveness (4.33 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (21st percentile among quarterbacks).
  • The Arizona Cardinals safeties project as the 8th-best collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

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