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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Carolina Panthers

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-180/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A running game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.

Trevor Lawrence grades out as one of the leading quarterbacks in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 2.36 yards-after-contact last year while ranking in the 82nd percentile.

Last year, the poor Panthers run defense has allowed a staggering 190.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the most in the league.

As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Carolina's unit has been terrible last year, ranking as the worst in football. in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 37.9% run rate.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are projected by the projection model to call only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 11th-fewest among all teams this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL last year, totaling a lowly 54.6 plays per game.

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