Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+107/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to accrue 4.8 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (16.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.6% in games he has played).
Trevor Lawrence's rushing efficiency has been refined this year, accumulating 5.65 yards-per-carry compared to just 4.80 rate last year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-least run-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 36.7% run rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
The New York Jets defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 4.15 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets defensive tackles project as the 4th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.