Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+390/-816).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +398 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +390.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 45.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends rank as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-least TDs in the league (0.62 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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