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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 235.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 245.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 235.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jaguars feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The Jacksonville O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
  • As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Houston's safety corps has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, profiling as the worst in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Jaguars have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
  • The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Trevor Lawrence's 57.3% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a noteworthy decline in his passing accuracy over last season's 61.2% figure.
  • Since the start of last season, the stout Houston Texans defense has given up a meager 64.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the lowest rate in the league.
  • The Texans pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 7.09 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-fewest in football.

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