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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Carolina Panthers

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 234.5 (-114/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 242.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 234.5 @ -117.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.1% pass rate.

The Jacksonville offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Carolina Panthers defense last year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%).

Last year, the shaky Panthers defense has given up the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing squads: a monstrous 8.40 yards.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are projected by the projection model to call only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 11th-fewest among all teams this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL last year, totaling a lowly 54.6 plays per game.

Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Panthers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.9 per game) last year.

Trevor Lawrence ranks as one of the least accurate QBs in the league last year with a 61.2% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 12th percentile.

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