Trevor Lawrence Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Interceptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line has given their QB 2.56 seconds before getting pressured (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence has totaled a measly 0.49 interceptions per game this year, checking in at the 81st percentile among QBs.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.