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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence Completions
Player Prop Week 18

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Trevor Lawrence Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-111/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Jaguars offensive scheme to lean 2.7% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Liam Coen now calling the plays.
  • The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a staggering 59.4 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in football against the Tennessee Titans defense this year (74.7% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Tennessee cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a massive 12.5-point favorite in this game.
  • The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects this game to chug along at the 11th-most sluggish tempo on the slate this week, averaging 26.81 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Titans, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.8 per game) this year.

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