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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence Carries
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Trevor Lawrence Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast Trevor Lawrence to be much more involved in his team's running game in this game (11.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Jaguars offensive strategy to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with head coach Liam Coen now calling the plays.
  • The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 38.6% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are expected by the predictive model to run only 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars since the start of last season (a lowly 55.6 per game on average).

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