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TreVeyon Henderson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

TreVeyon Henderson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+105/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the New England Patriots offensive blueprint to skew 4.4% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.

The New England O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

The Dolphins pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.7%) versus running backs this year (88.7%).

The Dolphins linebackers project as the 6th-best LB corps in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are giant -8.5-point underdogs.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 54.0% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see only 125.7 offensive plays run: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.

More TreVeyon Henderson Player Props

TreVeyon Henderson TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

TreVeyon Henderson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18