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TreVeyon Henderson

TreVeyon Henderson Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
TreVeyon Henderson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-192/+150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -192 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the New England Patriots offensive blueprint to skew 4.4% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.
  • The New England O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • The Dolphins pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.7%) versus running backs this year (88.7%).
  • When it comes to defensive ends pass-rushing, Miami's collection of DEs has been awful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are giant -8.5-point underdogs.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 53.2% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see only 125.7 offensive plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.

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