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TreVeyon Henderson

TreVeyon Henderson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
TreVeyon Henderson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-125/-101).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -101.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • The projections expect the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
  • The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The Patriots O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • When it comes to safeties getting after the quarterback, Buffalo's unit has been terrible this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • This year, the formidable Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered a meager 13.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 2nd-fewest in football.
  • The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (77%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (77.0%).

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