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TreVeyon Henderson

TreVeyon Henderson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
TreVeyon Henderson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New England Patriots have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
  • The Miami Dolphins defense has yielded the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (35.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.
  • The Miami defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given the game dynamics and play styles of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 27.12 seconds per play) will chug along at the 11th-most sluggish tempo out of all the games this week.
  • The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • Since the start of last season, the stout Dolphins defense has given up a meager 75.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.

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