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Trenton Irwin

Trenton Irwin Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders

Trenton Irwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Commanders defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.1 per game) since the start of last season.

Trenton Irwin comes in as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, completing a remarkable 76.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile among wideouts.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been awful since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Bengals are heavily favored in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

At the moment, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Bengals.

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