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Trenton Irwin

Trenton Irwin Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

Trenton Irwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop.

The predictive model expects Trenton Irwin to be a more important option in his team's pass attack in this week's game (12.7% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (6.2% in games he has played).

With an impressive 77.5% Adjusted Catch Rate (90th percentile) last year, Trenton Irwin rates among the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to WRs.

Last year, the poor New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered a staggering 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 9th-highest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a giant 9-point favorite in this week's contest.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have just 123.8 plays on offense run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

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