Trenton Irwin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Trenton Irwin

NFL · Player Props

Trenton Irwin

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Trenton Irwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-155/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.
While Trenton Irwin has received 5.4% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Cincinnati's passing attack in this game at 14.7%.
With an exceptional 81.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (93rd percentile) this year, Trenton Irwin rates among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Houston's collection of CBs has been very good this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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