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Trenton Irwin

Trenton Irwin Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders

Trenton Irwin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Commanders defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.1 per game) since the start of last season.

Trenton Irwin comes in as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, completing a remarkable 76.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile among wideouts.

Trenton Irwin has been one of the most efficient receivers in football, averaging an exceptional 10.45 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Bengals are heavily favored in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

At the moment, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Bengals.

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