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Trent Sherfield

Trent Sherfield Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals

Trent Sherfield Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1050/-1600).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -9500 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1600.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.2% red zone pass rate.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are projected by the projections to run 65.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-most on the slate this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bengals defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Broncos grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being a massive 7.5-point favorite this week.

The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect Trent Sherfield to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing offense near the end zone in this game (4.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.5% in games he has played).

As it relates to air yards, Trent Sherfield ranks in the paltry 9th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, with just 3.0 per game.

Trent Sherfield ranks in just the 3rd percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a bad 3.7 figure since the start of last season.

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