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Trent Sherfield

Trent Sherfield Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Trent Sherfield Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2800/-3100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -3100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Broncos.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are projected by the projection model to call 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Broncos ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.6%) to wide receivers this year (70.6%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 9-point advantage, the Broncos are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.
  • With a feeble 2.5% Red Zone Target% (23rd percentile) this year, Trent Sherfield has been as one of the wideouts with the most usage near the goal line in football.
  • Trent Sherfield has notched a meager 4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 13th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Trent Sherfield's 3.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the worst in the league: 5th percentile for wideouts.
  • The receiving TD column reads "0" on the back of Trent Sherfield's trading card this year.

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