Trent Sherfield Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Trent Sherfield's 17.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 8.8.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 57.0 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.