Trent Sherfield Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Trent Sherfield's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 8.8.
Trent Sherfield's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this season, averaging 2.1 yards per game compared to just 0.9 last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.