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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-186).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -164 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -186.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.3% red zone pass rate.
  • The Chiefs have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.0 plays per game.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • Travis Kelce has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 14.5% this year, which ranks him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see only 124.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.7 per game) this year.
  • After totaling 59.0 air yards per game last season, Travis Kelce has posted significant losses this season, currently boasting 34.0 per game.
  • Travis Kelce's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 54.8.
  • The Bills defense has yielded the 3rd-fewest TDs through the air in the league to TEs: 0.14 per game this year.

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