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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+124/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -138.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.4% red zone pass rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 134.1 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • The Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.4 plays per game.
  • Travis Kelce has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which ranks in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a big 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • After totaling 59.0 air yards per game last season, Travis Kelce has been a disappointment this season, now pacing 31.0 per game.
  • Travis Kelce's 33.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 54.8.

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