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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+178/-198).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +190 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +178.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% red zone pass rate.
  • Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 17.9% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year.
  • Travis Kelce's 80.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a meaningful improvement in his receiving skills over last year's 74.7% figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a giant 12-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Travis Kelce has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (33.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
  • Travis Kelce's 35.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 54.8.
  • This year, the formidable Las Vegas Raiders defense has conceded a meager 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 6th-best rate in the NFL.

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