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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Travis Kelce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-270).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -260 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -270.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.9% red zone pass rate.

At the moment, the 3rd-quickest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.

The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (38.5 per game) since the start of last season.

With a high 25.0% Red Zone Target% (96th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce rates among the TEs with the most usage near the end zone in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Travis Kelce's 31.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 54.8.

Travis Kelce's 67.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a remarkable regression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 74.7% mark.

When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Baltimore's unit has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.

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