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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

New York Giants vs Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+156/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +148 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.5% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually lead to better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Travis Kelce's 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a significant regression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 74.7% mark.

The Giants defense has allowed the 6th-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.26 per game since the start of last season.

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