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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-275).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +245 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +250.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Kansas City Chiefs will be rolling with backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The model projects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 61.5% red zone pass rate.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The projections expect Travis Kelce to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this week's contest (22.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.2% in games he has played).
  • When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have only 125.2 total plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Raiders defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
  • Travis Kelce has compiled far fewer air yards this year (42.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
  • Travis Kelce's 40.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 54.8.

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