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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+385/-520).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +420 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +385.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Kansas City Chiefs will be forced to start backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The Chiefs are a massive 13.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (61.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see 133.1 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Travis Kelce has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (42.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
  • Travis Kelce's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 54.8.
  • This year, the tough Denver Broncos defense has surrendered a mere 66.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in football.
  • When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Denver's DE corps has been terrible this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

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