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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -270 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -245.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.5% red zone pass rate.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 60.6 plays per game.
  • The projections expect Travis Kelce to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack near the goal line in this week's contest (21.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.6% in games he has played).
  • The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a running game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see only 127.1 total plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • Travis Kelce has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (44.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
  • Travis Kelce's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 54.8.
  • Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most TDs in the NFL (1.36 per game) against the Titans defense this year.

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