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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -295 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -245.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the NFL in the red zone (63.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Chiefs.
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.1 per game on average).
  • Our trusted projections expect Travis Kelce to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the goal line in this game (18.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.6% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 4-point favorite this week.
  • After accumulating 59.0 air yards per game last year, Travis Kelce has seen a big decrease this year, now averaging 43.0 per game.
  • Travis Kelce's 38.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 54.8.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league versus the Texans defense this year (65.2% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Texans defense has given up the 8th-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.33 per game this year.

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