Travis Kelce Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2025

Updated Nov 28, 2025 3:22 AM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+152/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -178 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.1% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (63.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
The 2nd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chiefs this year (a massive 61.5 per game on average).
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (37.9 per game) this year.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to see just 128.0 total plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.
Travis Kelce has posted far fewer air yards this year (41.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
Travis Kelce's 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 54.8.
The opposing side have run for the 6th-most TDs in the NFL (1.18 per game) vs. the Cowboys defense this year.

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