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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +162.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (63.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.
  • The Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
  • Our trusted projections expect Travis Kelce to be much more involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (19.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have only 128.7 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • Travis Kelce has totaled far fewer air yards this season (39.0 per game) than he did last season (59.0 per game).
  • Travis Kelce's 38.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 54.8.

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