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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-240).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +215.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football in the red zone (63.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
  • The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.9 per game on average).
  • Travis Kelce has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.8% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile among TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4 points.
  • Travis Kelce has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
  • Travis Kelce's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 54.8.
  • The Broncos pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (63.9%) vs. tight ends this year (63.9%).
  • The Denver Broncos defense has given up the 7th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.30 per game this year.

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