My Account Log Out
 
 
Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+108/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +109 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +108.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The Chiefs have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.0 plays per game.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • This week, Travis Kelce is anticipated by the projections to finish in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.3 targets.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see only 124.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.7 per game) this year.
  • Travis Kelce has been a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game this season (17.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (24.6%).
  • Travis Kelce's 4.7 adjusted catches per game this year illustrates a significant drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 6.1 rate.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™