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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-164/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 134.1 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • The Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.4 plays per game.
  • The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to total 6.1 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • Travis Kelce's 82.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a meaningful improvement in his pass-catching skills over last year's 74.7% figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a big 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • Travis Kelce has run fewer routes this year (75.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (86.7%).
  • Travis Kelce's pass-catching performance worsened this year, accumulating just 4.5 adjusted catches vs 6.1 last year.

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