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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-205/+155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -157 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -205.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to earn 6.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.

Travis Kelce's 15.6% Target% this season conveys a noteable decline in his pass game utilization over last season's 24.6% mark.

Travis Kelce's pass-catching performance diminished this year, compiling a measly 3.8 adjusted catches vs 6.1 last year.

The Jaguars linebackers profile as the 2nd-best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

More Travis Kelce Player Props

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