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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +109 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

At the moment, the 3rd-quickest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.

The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (38.5 per game) since the start of last season.

The projections expect Travis Kelce to total 7.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.

The Kansas City O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Travis Kelce has been much less involved in his offense's pass game this season (15.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (24.6%).

Travis Kelce's 67.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a remarkable regression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 74.7% mark.

The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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