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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Kansas City Chiefs will be rolling with backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (63.5% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Chiefs.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to total 8.3 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
  • The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack in this game (25.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.5% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have only 125.2 total plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Raiders defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
  • Travis Kelce's 4.5 adjusted catches per game this year indicates an impressive regression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 6.1 figure.

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