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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-111/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may decline.
  • The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to notch 6.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
  • The Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
  • The predictive model expects this game to chug along at the 13th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.89 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (just 30.7 per game) this year.
  • Travis Kelce's 18.3% Target Rate this year conveys an impressive reduction in his passing offense workload over last year's 24.6% mark.
  • Travis Kelce's 4.6 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a substantial decrease in his receiving proficiency over last season's 6.1 rate.

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