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Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-156/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.

The Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 3rd-most in football.

The projections expect Travis Kelce to earn 7.4 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have only 128.7 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.

Travis Kelce's 19.0% Target Rate this year conveys an impressive drop-off in his passing offense volume over last year's 24.6% rate.

Travis Kelce's play as a receiver has worsened this season, averaging a mere 5.0 adjusted catches compared to 6.1 last season.

More Travis Kelce Player Props

Travis Kelce ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 12