Travis Kelce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 16, 2025 9:22 PM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-175/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.9 per game on average).
In this week's game, Travis Kelce is projected by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.7 targets.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4 points.
Travis Kelce has been much less involved in his team's passing game this year (17.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (24.6%).
Travis Kelce's receiving skills have tailed off this year, averaging a mere 4.6 adjusted receptions compared to 6.1 last year.
The Broncos pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (63.9%) vs. tight ends this year (63.9%).
The Broncos safeties rank as the 5th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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