My Account Log Out
 
 
Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 41.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • This week, Travis Kelce is expected by the projections to slot into the 87th percentile among tight ends with 6.0 targets.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year.
  • Travis Kelce has been one of the top pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a fantastic 56.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.
  • Travis Kelce's 80.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a meaningful improvement in his receiving skills over last year's 74.7% figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a giant 13-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Travis Kelce has been a much smaller part of his offense's pass attack this season (17.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (24.6%).
  • Travis Kelce has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (33.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
  • Travis Kelce's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season represents a substantial regression in his effectiveness in space over last season's 3.5% mark.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™