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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Kansas City Chiefs will be rolling with backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (63.5% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Chiefs.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to total 8.3 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
  • The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack in this game (25.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.5% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have only 125.2 total plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Raiders defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
  • Travis Kelce has compiled far fewer air yards this year (42.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
  • Travis Kelce's talent in generating extra yardage have tailed off this season, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.53 mark last season.

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