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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 60.6 plays per game.
  • In this game, Travis Kelce is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.7 targets.
  • The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • With a stellar 56.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (99th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce has been as one of the best TEs in the pass game in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a running game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see only 127.2 total plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • Travis Kelce has been a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack this season (19.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (24.6%).
  • Travis Kelce has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (44.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
  • Travis Kelce's skills in picking up extra yardage have declined this season, notching just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.53 rate last season.

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